Recapping that Tough Market

Talking about a tough market in January and now look where we are. The Tough Guy starts playing downtrends thinking this economy is still sputtering, world market sucks, living costs rising. What does the market do? 14% rise, 17% from the bottom. It’s been time for a correction for a month. But the bulls, they keep a runnin. Like the song says, “the train kept a running, all night long. With a heave, and a ho, I just can’t let her go!”
I know all the reasons for the rise, cheap government money, falling commodities prices, money coming in from the sidelines, and finally, unemployment is starting to come down.
The Tough Guy is astounded by the “Pollyanna” attitude of the investing public, and their pundits. The bear voices cannot be heard over the pounding of bull hooves going to their broker’s office.
When you look at the housing market, think natural disasters, and all the money associated with them. Don’t think about a market with truncated growth. Housing sales are up. Housing is getting a boost from disaster recovery. Housing is not growing as fast as the “reporters” think.
Now look at the banks. For the most part the banks are fiscally healthy. Why? Because they are still not lending as much, and cheap government money. And all the capital requirements are going to keep it that way. The Tough Opinion is that banks will slow grow from here and that means a sector multiple reduction is in order. Never happen. Uncle Ben will intervene. But the rub here is the price of gold.
I think this is the pullback before gold parabolics again. The reason why is obvious. So much printed money, backed by gold, is being printed. Printed faster than gold is mined. Quicker than a hiccup. For the money to be worth something, the price of gold must rise.
The Tough Guy has heard silver is at a bottom. Three weeks ago, the analysts were saying buy silver. It has intrinsic value. The nominal ration of gold to silver is around 30 or 40 to one. Right now that ratio is over 100 to one. Silver has been taken to the woodshed! This will be the Tough Position to trade. Already in. Kept a 1/4 in through the drop.
Day traded other stocks, AAPL, SPY and VIX with mixed results. Gotta time that damn VIX a little better. The biggest fountain of information for traders anymore is not the TV but the internet. Get a few different newsfeeds, hook into twitter, and ZIP, ZAM, ZOWIE! Insta news with reactions, analysis, and suggestions galore. And twitter traders, youse guys are aiight.
Somehow, something is going to wake up the investors, and all hell will break loose in the markets. Reality will set in. Then we all go back to yield hunting.
And Tje Tough Zguy can do what he does best. Trade chaos. All without a short. Lol. Try that, big ol hedge fund. It’s as hard as teaching a Tiger to hold it’s breath underwater.
And that is about 1/4 of the tough market overview.


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